Pick Rate:
28-17 overall

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Week 3 (6-6) picks | wrap
Week 6 (9-3) picks | wrap
Week 7 (#-#) picks | wrap

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Thursday, October 06, 2005

Week 7: Trenchwar!

Can I continue my success after last week's 9-3 pick performance? We'll see! This week looks exciting with 4 games between rank opponents. Particularly the Tenn-Georgia game which is a top ten showdown.

I Know College Football Game of the Week

For those uninitiated, this is the best game in terms of entertainment value.

This week's Game of the Week is Georgia at Tennessee.

I am looking forward to this game for two reasons. First, I am a Tennessee fan (as you know) and I am looking forward to Tennessee putting down their second top 5 team in two weeks. Second, this game is going to be demonstrative of typical SEC football. This game is going to be the biggest fight in the trenches encountered by both teams so far. They are both aiming to set up their running games early and the trenches are where this is done.

I think the major player that'll control the field in this game will be Tennessee monster defensive line. They are the best D-Line in the country. Georgia has a strong, vetern offensive line but I don't think even they will be enough to slow down the 4th ranked running defense in the country. Mahelona and Harrel will be in the Georgia offense's backfield all day long and DJ will take some good licks. Tennessee has been having trouble with injuries on their offensive line though. They will have to take Gerald Riggs to the outside more than usual. I've seen him turn the corner well and I think they can beat Georgia out there.

Georgia's running offense has avergaed 198 yards-per-game so far while Tennessee is 112, but look at the defenses they've faced. Georgia's opponents have an average rushing-defense ranking of 66, while Tennessee's opponents avarage 41.

Georgia's Yards per carry is 5.46. The avereage of the differences in yards-per-carry (YPC) of tennessee's opponents against opponents other than tennessee minus their YPC against tennessee is 1.87 (if that's hard to understand try this: average opponents' YPC not including tennessee minus opponents YPC against tennessee (if you still don't understand, oh well)). So statisically Georgia should run 3.26 YPC. Multiply that by average carries per game, 36, and you get 117 yards on the game by Georiga. I don't think they can win without atleast 150.

Tennessee also has recievers that are much taller than Georgia's CBs, and I expect Clausen to pick on Georgia's Tim Jennings who is shorter than average.

Georgia may be undefeated, but they have yet to best tested. They've played two non-conference creampuffs: Boise State and La Monroe whose records combine for 4-5. They've also played two SEC teams that are 0-6 in conference play. Hardly a way to prove yourself.
Tennessee has already played 2 of the 5 top-10 (at time of play) teams on their schedule (and the 2 they've played and georgia are top-5 teams) They lost one, but they turned around and one the second in the most dramatic of ways. I think that once Tennessee lost the first one, they realized what was going on and has corrected themselves and they won't lose another. Tennessee will win this game on the back of tailback Gerald Riggs.

I Know College Football Marquis Matchups.

Okahoma at Texas

This game has been known for it's powerful matchups. We have known this game to be some good fights between two evenly matched teams. Unfortunately we don't have that here. We have an Oklahoma team who is facing loss number 3 and they don't know what to do besides hand the ball to Adrian Peterson and look like a bunch of deer in the burnt orange headlights. Texas will when heartily.

Ohio State at Penn State

Penn State surprised me last week, as you noticed. I had picked Minnesota. I'm not making the same mistake all over again. I say Penn State will continue to shock the nation with a victory over Ohio State. I think the performance of of Penn State's offense (457 yds per game; 36 ppg) will blow Ohio State out (defense allows: 239 ypd; 12.8). They've been moving the ball and scoring like there's no tomorrow. They'll keep it up in their thoughest Big 10 challenge yet.

California at UCLA

This might as well be the battle of USC challenger and probably our barometer to decided who will be a greater challenge. Ayoob has been a complete surprise for Cal as they never expected to be 5-0 when they lost their starter. UCLA has also been a surprise, though to the country rather than themselves. While on offense there is not a huge difference in yardage production, there is a big difference in overall defense. Cal has allowed 288 ypg and 10.6 ppg while UCLA has allowed 364 ypg and 20.8 points per game. I expect Ayoob to pick the secondary appart. UCLA struggled too much against Washington to look ready to play Cal. California wins.

I Know College Football Upset Roll Call

Ohio State at Penn State

Penn State wins. See Marquis Matchups.

Minnesota at Michigan

This game is going to be close but I don't have any faith in Michigan's offense. They are hit and miss depending on Hart being there and Henne throwing accurately neither of which are certain (well okay, Hart is playing). I also think that Minnesota had an eye opener and is going to be ready for what Michigan has. Michigan's rushing defense is 52 in the nation and I don't think they'll be able to stop Maroney. Michigan picks up its third loss after Maroney picks up 150 yards.

Virginia at Boston College

Virginia is coming off a an upset loss to Maryland and Boston College is coming off a blowout of a 2nd string team. I really don't think that Virginia is going to play well. They never have. They haven't been able to look good when they win. So while this is more likely than most other games Saturday, BC wins.

I Know College Football Done Deals

Wisconsin at Northwestern

This game is going to be high scoring early but the Badgers will pull away in the second half when their defense wears out Northwestern

Florida State at Wake Forest

Wake Forest may be the Vandy of the ACC...wait they got beat by Vandy. Florida State Wins.

Miami at Duke

Duke actually knows how to cover the open field at 16th in pass defense, but don't expect them to win this one.

Monday, October 03, 2005

Week 6 Blogpoll Ballot Submitted

1. Southern Cal - Passed their toughest test yet. First half wasn't pretty, but that's why they play two. (+/- 0)
2. Texas - After early Missouri was like any other high school team Texas has played. (+/- 0)
3. Virginia Tech - Killer win in a big game where the higher ranked team usually loses. (+/- 0)
4. Tennessee - This defense manhandles. Offense couldn't pick up the points (Tenn -21.5)? (+3)
5. Alabama - On their top game for Florida. (+11)
6. Florida State - Most thought they would face a tough test against the Orangemen. Most were wrong. (+3)
7. Notre Dame - Brandy Quinn is a Viper V8 with an arm attached. (+8)
8. Ohio State - No game. (+/- 0)
9. Georgia - No game. (+3)
10. Michigan State - Lost a close one to a on-again/off-again Michigan offense. (-4)
11. Cal - Booya (ayoob backwards) strikes again. Arizona can't. (+2)
12. Wisconsin - Nice showing against Indiana. (+1)
13. Arizona State - Best play against USC in a while, but not a win (-3)
14. LSU - Hoppin' Mad Bayou Bengals destroy Mississippi State. (+1)
15. Boston College - Eagles get to play with the powder puff team -12 players (+3)
16. Minnesota - WTF happened? Heisman cadidate runs for 48 yards? Not no more.(-9)
17. UCLA - Tougher than expected with Washington, but a win. (+2)
18. Florida - We aready knew the offense didn't work on a good defense, but now we know I was right in that they couldn't deal with a good offense either. (-13)
19. Miami - Put down South Florida woohoo (+/- 0)
20. Georgia Tech - No game. (+/- 0)
21. Auburn - Great looking game against South Carolina. (PUR)
22. Michigan - Important overtime win against a big time Michigan State offense. (PUR)
23. Fresno State - Pummled a good Toledo team. (PUR)
24. Texas Tech - Played an "almost someone" and had trouble. I don't want to see what happens when they play someone. (-1)
25. Louisville - Who else am I going to add down here? At least they got their frustration out.(PUR)

Dropped Out: Virginia (24), Iowa State (22), Purdue (21)

Games I saw: Tennessee-Ole Miss, USC-Arizona State, Florida-Alabama, bit of Texas-Mizzou, bit of Virginia Tech-West Virginia.

This ballot is now submitted, but if you feel free to complain about something you can no longer change, comment away!

On the up and up

I had a good past weekend picking 9-3! Where was I right? Where was I wrong?

Michigan-Michigan State: Well my pick was wrong, but I got what I wanted
(a Michigan win). Michigan did the way I said they would have to. Their offense clicked and got an early lead that I said they would need. They even managed to out-pace MSU scoring. I said they would have to hope to have the ball last and they may of not had it last, but they did have a chance to put it away on their last drive of regulation-play, though they didn't make it. Congrats to the Wolverines and their fans.

USC-Arizona State: My pick was right, but I was plumb wrong about it being easy for USC.

Florida-Alabama: This was probably like my "pick of the week". I had commented about Alabama's great secondary and that their defense 7th in nation while neglecting to mention that Florida was 5th nationally in defense. The reason being that Florida had yet to face an offensive test (even though I'm a Tennessee fan, I'd be crazy to say that they are an offensive test). Tennessee had already shown the nation that a good defense can stop the maturing Meyer offense under leak (they're still working on it though!). Alabama took that knowledge into the game and between that and the high-powered offensive attack of Alabama, Florida couldn't even score a touchdown. I knew Bama would win, but not like that.

Virginia Tech-West Virginia: Picked right here, but I was wrong in saying that this game would be close.

Notre Dame-Purdue: I was right again. I knew that ND pass defense would shutdown Purdue, and given the opportunity ND's offense took it and was awesome. Even the second team offense scored.

Minnesota-Penn State: Blatent wrongness here. Minnesota may not be what I thought they were and Penn State is definately not what I thought they were.

LSU-Mississippi State: I gave you all the reasons Mississippi State could win, but said LSU would. It wasn't even a question in the end.

Florida Atlantic-Louisville: When I placed this game under Upset Roll Call it was really just a joke as you noticed and Louiville did just as I said they would.

Ole Miss-Tennessee: After the first quarter Tennessee could hardly score again (not until the 4th), but Tennessee's amazing Defense didn't let Ole Miss get anywhere. Ole Miss was actually -19 yards rushing on the day until late in the 4th when they broke a 50 yarder. I was way wrong in calling for a 30 point Tennessee victory.

Iowa State-Nebraska: Iowa State didn't pay attention to Nebraska and paid the price. I was wrong with this pick, and this was anything but a done deal.

Ball State-Boston College, Florida State-Syracuse: Just as expected.

Saturday, October 01, 2005

4:30 Update

It's 9:15 let in the second quarter and right now, and I have to say it looks like I may have been right about Alabama's defense. Right now Florida only has 1 yard recieving yard and 0 points. Check that, Leak just completed his second of eight total passes so they have more recieving yards. Leak

And we have an early surprise as ASU leads USC 7-0 on a punt return and they put USC in a 4th down situation after starting on ASU's 13. Leinart was sacked on 3rd and 6. So far, USC looks like they haven't taken ASU prepartation seriously and they appear out of sync. They settled for a field goal.

Alabama scores on a 65-yard pass, that way really more yards after the catch than air.

Right now there are surprises brewing but remember, this could all change before the games are over.

Thursday, September 29, 2005

Week 6: Return to Glory

Just as the Tennessee Volunteers have returned, so I return. And without further delay, here are my picks for Week6.

I Know College Football Game of the Week

For those uninitiated, this is the best game in terms of entertainment value.

This week's Game of the Week is Michigan at Michigan State.

Now I'm sure you're wondering how a game pitting a visting 2-2 Michigan team that has stuttered, no, collapsed offensively against a Michigan State team with a stellar offense featuring Heisman candidate Drew Stanton can be called the Game of the Week. Rest assured, this game will be entertaining (unless you cheer for big blue, you guys turn it off). Since when is it not entertaining to watch a offensive behemoth terrify their opponents? I have to be honest here, I want Michigan to win, just because I feel so bad for their fans (I know what it's like).

If Michigan wants a piece of this game, and believe me, they do, then they'll have to start early. Their offense will have to miraculously be firing on all cylinders. The only way Michigan wins is to keep up with MSU's score and hope to have the ball last. I doubt it will happen though. MSU wins this one.

I Know College Football Marquis Matchups

USC at Arizona State

It is this week that USC meets what I would call their greatest challenge yet.,and probably the best Passing team they'll face this season as well. They also meet their match, in terms of school colors that is.

But who are we kidding? ASU might be those things, but it doesn't matter. USC is still a better passing team than the best passing team they'll face. USC could win this one even if they didn't have a defense, but they do. So they'll win easily and my hopes for USC getting knocked off their throne will be one more game less of having a chance.

Florida at Alabama

If you asked me which team had the best chance of being upset this week: Michigan State, USC, Virginia Tech, or Florida, then I would have to answer Florida. If for no other reason, this is the SEC. Okay, okay, I'll give you better reasons.

The defensive backfield for Alabama is one of the better in the nation and 7th in overall defense (though that number may lie a bit since they gave up 237 yards to Arkansas). Anthony Madison is going to be in Chad Jackson's face all night and that might be enough to slow him down. They have to since he's had 401 yards and six touchdowns in this season so far, but I believe they can.

Alabama is trying to make their case for being back in college football's elite. A 4-0 program this year needs this win to do that, and they players know it, and that is going to put them on their top game, which I belive is enough to beat Florida.

Virginia Tech at West Virginia

Let me start by telling you that this is not going to be like anything like Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech. Fortunately for West Virginia they're at home. Unfortunately for West Virginia, Marcus Vick is on the other team. This will be a close game, but Vick will be the difference.

Minnesota at Penn State

In this third week 6 game of Maroon/Crimson/etc. against a team in a shade of blue, we have two things. Penn State is everything you think it is, a mediocre team that is only undefeated because they have yet to play a real opponent. Minnesota is also what you think it is, a good team that due to little preseason hype is fighting its way up the rankings, and doing so with big wins. Minnesota is going to win this just because Penn State likes to give the ball away on offense (4 times last week), and that won't work against these Golden Gophers.

Notre Dame at Purdue

One thing is obvious to me here. Notre Dame wins. 6th passing defense in the nation against 61st passing team who relies on passing as their MO to win. Though if I were really two people. and one of those two people was more like Corso, then I might say,"Not so fast my...self?" Whatever, the point is Notre Dame gave up good yardage against Washington, though they managed to stop the scores. Purdue is a better offense than Washington (though the overtime may demonstrate that they can't done when it matters, but I'd say Minnesota is just a better team). And ND had defensive success against Michigan, but Michigan's offense ain't so hot, as was previously thought. So, that said, we may be looking at a shootout, but only if Purdue's quarterback Brandon Kirsh can be accurate and the recievers don't drop balls. History says that doesn't happen, so I'm going to go with Notre Dame.

I Know College Football Upset Roll Call

Florida at Alabama

Alabama wins. See Marquis Matchups above.

LSU at Mississippi State

You're thinkin' "Yeah Right," but hear me out. LSU is coming off a short week, they are emotionally drained, flat, and it's road game, and MSU gave Georgia trouble. Oh yeah, this is the SEC where being "tough" on top of all that can tip the balance in your favor, but will Les Miles let his team go in unprepared? No. LSU wins.

Florida Atlantic at Louisville

After last week, I had to put this here, but Louisville hates non-major Florida teams so much at this point, they'll actually slaughter Fla Atlantic.

I Know College Football Done Deals

Ole Miss at Tennessee

Tennessee is a 22 point favorite, but I'm saying by 30.

Ball State at Boston College

Boston College has been waiting for a easy one.

Iowa State at Nebraska

Haha, as a Tennessee fan, I find this hilarious.

Florida State at Syracuse

Poor Orangemen.

Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Blogpoll Roundtable #8

1. We are now 1/3 of the way through the season and things are starting to shake out. With that in mind, who are your picks to win each of the BCS conferences, as well as your choice for an at-large berth from a non-BCS league (none is an option)?

ACC: Va Tech
Big 12: Texas
Big 10: Minnesota
Big East: West Virginia
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Tennessee (call me a homer, t3h Biased, but with Clausen at the helm things will change)
There Won't be an at-large

2. What team currently out of the Top 10 (AP or Coach's, doesn't really matter), has the best chance of ending up in the title game?


3. When you're watching a game, what type of fan can you absolutely not tolerate being around?

Pessimistic type and/or drunken "morans". At Tennessee alcohol is banned from the stadium, but afterwards it looks like an an airplaine-load of airplane bottles has been dropped on the stadium seats. When I work consessions I get so many requests for Large cokes with a little off the top. Most from people whose breath could get a fly drunk. Pessimists just piss me off for their inability to take a awesome win for what it is.

Bonus: A sizable portion of Michigan fandom is in full meltdown mode (myself especially). Some have chosen to sequester themselves for this weekend's game against MSU to avoid scaring children, causing long-term psychological damage to those in the near vicinity, and most especially to avoid jail (I'm not saying this is me per se). Anyways, we need some help. Give us some ideas for replacements for LLLyd Carr (3 L's for the number of losses per year, and no O this year either). Assistant coaches, head coaches elsewhere, etc. Please, give us something to look forward to.

Would you be willing to hire Saban after he eventually jumps the shark in the NFL?

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Week 5 Blogpoll Ballot

Take notice: 11 teams changed spots by 5 or more, and 3 teams previously unranked (PUR). So this has been a major reorganization of my top 25 in some ways. Pretty normal in others (4 teams unchanged). Sorry I have been gone for so long. I had no will to work on this site after the Florida game. I did submit a week 4 ballot though it was unpublished here. If you want to see it, it is here.

1. Southern Cal - Facing a tougher test Saturday (+/- 0)
2. Texas - no game (+/- 0)
3. Virginia Tech - Ya know...awesome! (+/- 0)
4. Florida - Chris Leak against UK = Sandblasting a soup cracker (+1)
5. Michigan State - Offensive Juggernaught (+10)
6. Minnesota - Good Job against Purdue (+8)
7. Tennessee - beat a (formerly) top 5 team; Killer D; Fulmer opens his eyes to the Quarterback reality (+2)
8. Ohio State - Beat a ranked opponent! (+/- 0)
9. Florida State - no game (+4)
10. Arizona State - Currently the biggest challenge to USC (+9)
11. Georiga - Should have beat Mississippi State like sandblasting a soup cracker. (-7)
12. Cal - Ayoob aka Boo ya! is the man. (+8)
13. Wisconsin - Sittin' pretty at 4-0 after knockin' off what appears to be an overrated but still good Michigan team. (PUR)
14. LSU - How rarely do you see such a implosion of a team. (-8)
15. Notre Dame - Irish show the love for their former coach (+6)
16. Alabama - The stuff to beat Arkansas 24-13 probably isn't the stuff to beat Florida. (+1)
17. Boston College - They cameback agaisnt clemson who is now a 2 loss team. (+1)
18. UCLA - No game, but I couldn't rank them lower than GT or Purdue. (+7)
19. Miami - Yawner; win a big one. (+3)
20. Georgia Tech - They are still a good team. Just a good team who lost to a better team. (-8)
21. Purdue - Lost one in overtime that was close all day. They are also still a good team. (-11)
22. Iowa State - Iowa appears to be less of a big deal now and they have close one with Army(!?). (-6)
23. Texas Tech - Beat someone that means something please. (+/- 0)
24. Virginia - I'm running out of teams! (PUR)
25. Texas A&M - McNeal makes this team ranked but where was the defense Thursday night? (PUR)

Dropped: Michigan (#7), Louisville (#11), Iowa (#24)

Games I saw: Bits of Miami vs Colorado (my ABC station had this instead of USC), Notre Dame at Washington, Alabama vs Arkansas. Last Quarter of Minnesota vs Purdue. All of Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech, Tennessee vs LSU.

Monday, September 26, 2005

Quarterback Controversy Part Deux

So I was wrong. Tennessee has (probably had at this point) a quarterback situation, but I am glad to see Fulmer pick one. Now in the game looks like Fulmer is coming to the realization that Ainge might not have been the best pick. Too bad he didn't know it before the game. Looks like they'll have to chalk a loss up to figuring out who your quarterback is.