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Friday, September 09, 2005

Week 2: W is for Withdraw

It's that time again! Time for the I Know College Football Week 2 picks.

Now I know what you're thinking. "How, after a 3-7 week one record, can this guy continue to pick ball games, and why should I care what he picks?" Well, 1) its my website, and 2) how should I know? And please, if I seem a little crazy with my picks (when don't I?) then remember that I am under severe mental duress as I am in the process of withdrawing from my beloved University of Tennessee. Painful as it is, I realize that I am just far too much of a homebody to be here. Enough of that, let's get on with the picks!

I Know College Football Game of The Week

For those uninitiated this is the best game in terms of entertainment value.

This week's Game of The Week is Texas at Ohio State.

This is a game that many have been looking forward to since the end of last football season. Two top-5 power houses are meeting to seperate the contenders from the pretenders. The field will be covered in talent, but Ohio State will edge out Texas. Why? Simple. Ohio State can slow down Texas' stable of rushers with a good run defense featuring homing missle, A.J. Hawk. They took Miami (of Ohio)'s Brandon Murphy who averaged 5.2 yards-per-carry last year and reduced that to 1.8. They will have the same effect on Vince Young and the top 4 running backs at Texas whose lowest YPC in game one was 7 by Young. The 4 other backs had 8 or more each (though all this was against lowly LA-Lafayette). They won't likely be held to 2 YPC but it will be lower than 7. Without a killer running game, Texas will be forced to rely more on the arm of Young, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Being forced to throw, however, won't be as comfortable and will result in a less than great performance by Young due in part also to A.J. Hawk's excellent coverage and pass rush. Ohio State doesn't need to make Young have a bad day in order to win, just a less than great day. The other area where Ohio will come out on top is field position. This will be due to Ted Ginn Jr.'s kick returns. Pair that with downfield targets like Ginn and Santanio Holmes (who will see a lot of one on one coverage), and we're looking at a lot of yards and probably points by OSU. Texas needs to play the soft zone to keep OSU's recievers from getting behind them. Look for Ginn to have a good receiving game and for Holmes to do so as well, since the safeties will be rolling Ginn's way most of the evening. Texas just better hope it doesn't come down to a fieldgoal to win it. Their kicker missed 3 extra points last week! I love Ohio State to win this one.

I Know College Football Marquis Matchups

Notre Dame at Michigan

This game wasn't really a big deal until Notre Dame came through against Pitt with the unexpected slaughter of the Panther defense. Can Notre Dame pull the upset? I believe they can. Michigan's defense wasn't exactly hot stuff allowing NIU to pass for 200 yards and rush for over 210 yards. NIU's problem was that they couldn't hold on to the ball to score. They also had red zone problems getting only one touchdown out of 3 trips, the other two being a field goal and a blocked field goal. The problem for Michigan this week is that Notre Dame is coming into this game without greased hands (no fumbles against Pitt) and as regular red zone operators, having scored touchdowns in four out of five trips to the red zone against Pitt, and they probably would have scored on the 5th trip if the game wasn't ending. Notre Dame had 504 yards against Pitt which is bad news for Michigan who allowed 411 to a less respectable NIU team. The good news for Michigan is that Notre Dame's defense may not be up to the task of stopping them. Chris Henne will have a big day against a ND secondary that gave up 220 yards to Pitt. Receiver Jason Avant will have a lot of yards because of his ability to catch the ball, even in traffic. I'm looking for this game to be a points race with Notre Dame coming out on top.

Louisiana State at Arizona State

Finally we will have a chance to gauge LSU and it will be against a worthy opponent. Unfortunately for LSU this game was relocated to Tempe. If it had been played in Baton Rouge, I would not have given ASU the chance it now has. I may be discounting ASU a little too much though because they did look dominant against Temple with 63 points and over 550 yards offense. They showed a weak side though with 3 turnovers (2 picks thrown by ADU QB Sam Keller) and 11 penalties (compared to Temple's 0 penalties). Keller will have to keep an eye on LSU safety LaRon Landry and avoid throwing in his direction while exploiting one-on-one matchups with LSU's weaker CBs such as Ronnie Prude. It is hard for me to call this one just because I haven't seen LSU, but they have talent in more positions than most schools in the nation. I don't think LSU will be upset.

South Carolina at Georgia

The phenomenon of Steve Spurrier does not ever leave, I'm afraid. Just what is it? It causes people to think that a team has a chance, just because that team is being coached by Steve Spurrier. I'm sorry, but South Carolina winning this game is a long shot. After watching what the QB for UCF was able to do against the Gamecock defense, I have no doubt that Georgia QB D.J. Shockley is going to make it known that he owns USC's defense. Georgia will win this easily.

Virginia Tech at Duke

Did I tell you Vick would do it for Virgina Tech last week or what? And he looked good. Expect more of the same here. It is highly unlikely that Duke should pull anything on VT.

I Know College Football Upset Roll Call

Texas at Ohio State

Ohio State upsets number 2 in the nation, see Marquis Matchups.

Notre Dame at Michigan

Notre Dame takes out this top 5 opponent, see Marquis Matchups.

North Carolina at Georgia Tech

The truth about Georgia Tech is they looked good against Auburn, but I'm not convinced they're a true top 25 contender. I want to see if they can handle this game like a top 25 team before I would call this one for them. More likely than not, they'll win.

California at Washington

Washington could chance it out if the get to California RB Marshawn Lynch off his game. California edges out a game closer than many expect.

Tulsa at Oklahoma

Oklahoma has to prove to some people that they aren't completely gone, but I already believe them, despite how many major media people jump off their bandwagon. One loss to TCU doesn't mean you suck. Unfortunately, Tulsa has been listening to Oklahoma's naysayers and probably won't be prepared to do what is needed to upset Oklahoma. Oklahoma will win.

I Know College Football Done Deals

(Note, I changed this from "Sure Things" because it sounds better)

Army at Boston College

Boston College will win this one. They are shaping up to be one of three of the top teams in the ACC, could beat Florida State.

Louisiana Tech at Florida

Florida gets to wrap up their "preseason" before their season begins in earnest when Tennessee comes a'callin'.

The Citadel as Florida State

Some people think Citadel has a chance. Some people have to live in rooms with mattresses on the walls, floor, and ceiling. Florida State wins.

Just to show how ADD I am, I started this entry at 11:14 AM and it's now 3:12 PM.