Pick Rate:
28-17 overall

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Thursday, October 06, 2005

Week 7: Trenchwar!

Can I continue my success after last week's 9-3 pick performance? We'll see! This week looks exciting with 4 games between rank opponents. Particularly the Tenn-Georgia game which is a top ten showdown.

I Know College Football Game of the Week

For those uninitiated, this is the best game in terms of entertainment value.

This week's Game of the Week is Georgia at Tennessee.

I am looking forward to this game for two reasons. First, I am a Tennessee fan (as you know) and I am looking forward to Tennessee putting down their second top 5 team in two weeks. Second, this game is going to be demonstrative of typical SEC football. This game is going to be the biggest fight in the trenches encountered by both teams so far. They are both aiming to set up their running games early and the trenches are where this is done.

I think the major player that'll control the field in this game will be Tennessee monster defensive line. They are the best D-Line in the country. Georgia has a strong, vetern offensive line but I don't think even they will be enough to slow down the 4th ranked running defense in the country. Mahelona and Harrel will be in the Georgia offense's backfield all day long and DJ will take some good licks. Tennessee has been having trouble with injuries on their offensive line though. They will have to take Gerald Riggs to the outside more than usual. I've seen him turn the corner well and I think they can beat Georgia out there.

Georgia's running offense has avergaed 198 yards-per-game so far while Tennessee is 112, but look at the defenses they've faced. Georgia's opponents have an average rushing-defense ranking of 66, while Tennessee's opponents avarage 41.

Georgia's Yards per carry is 5.46. The avereage of the differences in yards-per-carry (YPC) of tennessee's opponents against opponents other than tennessee minus their YPC against tennessee is 1.87 (if that's hard to understand try this: average opponents' YPC not including tennessee minus opponents YPC against tennessee (if you still don't understand, oh well)). So statisically Georgia should run 3.26 YPC. Multiply that by average carries per game, 36, and you get 117 yards on the game by Georiga. I don't think they can win without atleast 150.

Tennessee also has recievers that are much taller than Georgia's CBs, and I expect Clausen to pick on Georgia's Tim Jennings who is shorter than average.

Georgia may be undefeated, but they have yet to best tested. They've played two non-conference creampuffs: Boise State and La Monroe whose records combine for 4-5. They've also played two SEC teams that are 0-6 in conference play. Hardly a way to prove yourself.
Tennessee has already played 2 of the 5 top-10 (at time of play) teams on their schedule (and the 2 they've played and georgia are top-5 teams) They lost one, but they turned around and one the second in the most dramatic of ways. I think that once Tennessee lost the first one, they realized what was going on and has corrected themselves and they won't lose another. Tennessee will win this game on the back of tailback Gerald Riggs.

I Know College Football Marquis Matchups.

Okahoma at Texas

This game has been known for it's powerful matchups. We have known this game to be some good fights between two evenly matched teams. Unfortunately we don't have that here. We have an Oklahoma team who is facing loss number 3 and they don't know what to do besides hand the ball to Adrian Peterson and look like a bunch of deer in the burnt orange headlights. Texas will when heartily.

Ohio State at Penn State

Penn State surprised me last week, as you noticed. I had picked Minnesota. I'm not making the same mistake all over again. I say Penn State will continue to shock the nation with a victory over Ohio State. I think the performance of of Penn State's offense (457 yds per game; 36 ppg) will blow Ohio State out (defense allows: 239 ypd; 12.8). They've been moving the ball and scoring like there's no tomorrow. They'll keep it up in their thoughest Big 10 challenge yet.

California at UCLA

This might as well be the battle of USC challenger and probably our barometer to decided who will be a greater challenge. Ayoob has been a complete surprise for Cal as they never expected to be 5-0 when they lost their starter. UCLA has also been a surprise, though to the country rather than themselves. While on offense there is not a huge difference in yardage production, there is a big difference in overall defense. Cal has allowed 288 ypg and 10.6 ppg while UCLA has allowed 364 ypg and 20.8 points per game. I expect Ayoob to pick the secondary appart. UCLA struggled too much against Washington to look ready to play Cal. California wins.

I Know College Football Upset Roll Call

Ohio State at Penn State

Penn State wins. See Marquis Matchups.

Minnesota at Michigan

This game is going to be close but I don't have any faith in Michigan's offense. They are hit and miss depending on Hart being there and Henne throwing accurately neither of which are certain (well okay, Hart is playing). I also think that Minnesota had an eye opener and is going to be ready for what Michigan has. Michigan's rushing defense is 52 in the nation and I don't think they'll be able to stop Maroney. Michigan picks up its third loss after Maroney picks up 150 yards.

Virginia at Boston College

Virginia is coming off a an upset loss to Maryland and Boston College is coming off a blowout of a 2nd string team. I really don't think that Virginia is going to play well. They never have. They haven't been able to look good when they win. So while this is more likely than most other games Saturday, BC wins.

I Know College Football Done Deals

Wisconsin at Northwestern

This game is going to be high scoring early but the Badgers will pull away in the second half when their defense wears out Northwestern

Florida State at Wake Forest

Wake Forest may be the Vandy of the ACC...wait they got beat by Vandy. Florida State Wins.

Miami at Duke

Duke actually knows how to cover the open field at 16th in pass defense, but don't expect them to win this one.

Monday, October 03, 2005

Week 6 Blogpoll Ballot Submitted

1. Southern Cal - Passed their toughest test yet. First half wasn't pretty, but that's why they play two. (+/- 0)
2. Texas - After early Missouri was like any other high school team Texas has played. (+/- 0)
3. Virginia Tech - Killer win in a big game where the higher ranked team usually loses. (+/- 0)
4. Tennessee - This defense manhandles. Offense couldn't pick up the points (Tenn -21.5)? (+3)
5. Alabama - On their top game for Florida. (+11)
6. Florida State - Most thought they would face a tough test against the Orangemen. Most were wrong. (+3)
7. Notre Dame - Brandy Quinn is a Viper V8 with an arm attached. (+8)
8. Ohio State - No game. (+/- 0)
9. Georgia - No game. (+3)
10. Michigan State - Lost a close one to a on-again/off-again Michigan offense. (-4)
11. Cal - Booya (ayoob backwards) strikes again. Arizona can't. (+2)
12. Wisconsin - Nice showing against Indiana. (+1)
13. Arizona State - Best play against USC in a while, but not a win (-3)
14. LSU - Hoppin' Mad Bayou Bengals destroy Mississippi State. (+1)
15. Boston College - Eagles get to play with the powder puff team -12 players (+3)
16. Minnesota - WTF happened? Heisman cadidate runs for 48 yards? Not no more.(-9)
17. UCLA - Tougher than expected with Washington, but a win. (+2)
18. Florida - We aready knew the offense didn't work on a good defense, but now we know I was right in that they couldn't deal with a good offense either. (-13)
19. Miami - Put down South Florida woohoo (+/- 0)
20. Georgia Tech - No game. (+/- 0)
21. Auburn - Great looking game against South Carolina. (PUR)
22. Michigan - Important overtime win against a big time Michigan State offense. (PUR)
23. Fresno State - Pummled a good Toledo team. (PUR)
24. Texas Tech - Played an "almost someone" and had trouble. I don't want to see what happens when they play someone. (-1)
25. Louisville - Who else am I going to add down here? At least they got their frustration out.(PUR)

Dropped Out: Virginia (24), Iowa State (22), Purdue (21)

Games I saw: Tennessee-Ole Miss, USC-Arizona State, Florida-Alabama, bit of Texas-Mizzou, bit of Virginia Tech-West Virginia.

This ballot is now submitted, but if you feel free to complain about something you can no longer change, comment away!

On the up and up

I had a good past weekend picking 9-3! Where was I right? Where was I wrong?

Michigan-Michigan State: Well my pick was wrong, but I got what I wanted
(a Michigan win). Michigan did the way I said they would have to. Their offense clicked and got an early lead that I said they would need. They even managed to out-pace MSU scoring. I said they would have to hope to have the ball last and they may of not had it last, but they did have a chance to put it away on their last drive of regulation-play, though they didn't make it. Congrats to the Wolverines and their fans.

USC-Arizona State: My pick was right, but I was plumb wrong about it being easy for USC.

Florida-Alabama: This was probably like my "pick of the week". I had commented about Alabama's great secondary and that their defense 7th in nation while neglecting to mention that Florida was 5th nationally in defense. The reason being that Florida had yet to face an offensive test (even though I'm a Tennessee fan, I'd be crazy to say that they are an offensive test). Tennessee had already shown the nation that a good defense can stop the maturing Meyer offense under leak (they're still working on it though!). Alabama took that knowledge into the game and between that and the high-powered offensive attack of Alabama, Florida couldn't even score a touchdown. I knew Bama would win, but not like that.

Virginia Tech-West Virginia: Picked right here, but I was wrong in saying that this game would be close.

Notre Dame-Purdue: I was right again. I knew that ND pass defense would shutdown Purdue, and given the opportunity ND's offense took it and was awesome. Even the second team offense scored.

Minnesota-Penn State: Blatent wrongness here. Minnesota may not be what I thought they were and Penn State is definately not what I thought they were.

LSU-Mississippi State: I gave you all the reasons Mississippi State could win, but said LSU would. It wasn't even a question in the end.

Florida Atlantic-Louisville: When I placed this game under Upset Roll Call it was really just a joke as you noticed and Louiville did just as I said they would.

Ole Miss-Tennessee: After the first quarter Tennessee could hardly score again (not until the 4th), but Tennessee's amazing Defense didn't let Ole Miss get anywhere. Ole Miss was actually -19 yards rushing on the day until late in the 4th when they broke a 50 yarder. I was way wrong in calling for a 30 point Tennessee victory.

Iowa State-Nebraska: Iowa State didn't pay attention to Nebraska and paid the price. I was wrong with this pick, and this was anything but a done deal.

Ball State-Boston College, Florida State-Syracuse: Just as expected.

Saturday, October 01, 2005

4:30 Update

It's 9:15 let in the second quarter and right now, and I have to say it looks like I may have been right about Alabama's defense. Right now Florida only has 1 yard recieving yard and 0 points. Check that, Leak just completed his second of eight total passes so they have more recieving yards. Leak

And we have an early surprise as ASU leads USC 7-0 on a punt return and they put USC in a 4th down situation after starting on ASU's 13. Leinart was sacked on 3rd and 6. So far, USC looks like they haven't taken ASU prepartation seriously and they appear out of sync. They settled for a field goal.

Alabama scores on a 65-yard pass, that way really more yards after the catch than air.

Right now there are surprises brewing but remember, this could all change before the games are over.