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Thursday, October 06, 2005

Week 7: Trenchwar!

Can I continue my success after last week's 9-3 pick performance? We'll see! This week looks exciting with 4 games between rank opponents. Particularly the Tenn-Georgia game which is a top ten showdown.

I Know College Football Game of the Week

For those uninitiated, this is the best game in terms of entertainment value.

This week's Game of the Week is Georgia at Tennessee.

I am looking forward to this game for two reasons. First, I am a Tennessee fan (as you know) and I am looking forward to Tennessee putting down their second top 5 team in two weeks. Second, this game is going to be demonstrative of typical SEC football. This game is going to be the biggest fight in the trenches encountered by both teams so far. They are both aiming to set up their running games early and the trenches are where this is done.

I think the major player that'll control the field in this game will be Tennessee monster defensive line. They are the best D-Line in the country. Georgia has a strong, vetern offensive line but I don't think even they will be enough to slow down the 4th ranked running defense in the country. Mahelona and Harrel will be in the Georgia offense's backfield all day long and DJ will take some good licks. Tennessee has been having trouble with injuries on their offensive line though. They will have to take Gerald Riggs to the outside more than usual. I've seen him turn the corner well and I think they can beat Georgia out there.

Georgia's running offense has avergaed 198 yards-per-game so far while Tennessee is 112, but look at the defenses they've faced. Georgia's opponents have an average rushing-defense ranking of 66, while Tennessee's opponents avarage 41.

Georgia's Yards per carry is 5.46. The avereage of the differences in yards-per-carry (YPC) of tennessee's opponents against opponents other than tennessee minus their YPC against tennessee is 1.87 (if that's hard to understand try this: average opponents' YPC not including tennessee minus opponents YPC against tennessee (if you still don't understand, oh well)). So statisically Georgia should run 3.26 YPC. Multiply that by average carries per game, 36, and you get 117 yards on the game by Georiga. I don't think they can win without atleast 150.

Tennessee also has recievers that are much taller than Georgia's CBs, and I expect Clausen to pick on Georgia's Tim Jennings who is shorter than average.

Georgia may be undefeated, but they have yet to best tested. They've played two non-conference creampuffs: Boise State and La Monroe whose records combine for 4-5. They've also played two SEC teams that are 0-6 in conference play. Hardly a way to prove yourself.
Tennessee has already played 2 of the 5 top-10 (at time of play) teams on their schedule (and the 2 they've played and georgia are top-5 teams) They lost one, but they turned around and one the second in the most dramatic of ways. I think that once Tennessee lost the first one, they realized what was going on and has corrected themselves and they won't lose another. Tennessee will win this game on the back of tailback Gerald Riggs.

I Know College Football Marquis Matchups.

Okahoma at Texas

This game has been known for it's powerful matchups. We have known this game to be some good fights between two evenly matched teams. Unfortunately we don't have that here. We have an Oklahoma team who is facing loss number 3 and they don't know what to do besides hand the ball to Adrian Peterson and look like a bunch of deer in the burnt orange headlights. Texas will when heartily.

Ohio State at Penn State

Penn State surprised me last week, as you noticed. I had picked Minnesota. I'm not making the same mistake all over again. I say Penn State will continue to shock the nation with a victory over Ohio State. I think the performance of of Penn State's offense (457 yds per game; 36 ppg) will blow Ohio State out (defense allows: 239 ypd; 12.8). They've been moving the ball and scoring like there's no tomorrow. They'll keep it up in their thoughest Big 10 challenge yet.

California at UCLA

This might as well be the battle of USC challenger and probably our barometer to decided who will be a greater challenge. Ayoob has been a complete surprise for Cal as they never expected to be 5-0 when they lost their starter. UCLA has also been a surprise, though to the country rather than themselves. While on offense there is not a huge difference in yardage production, there is a big difference in overall defense. Cal has allowed 288 ypg and 10.6 ppg while UCLA has allowed 364 ypg and 20.8 points per game. I expect Ayoob to pick the secondary appart. UCLA struggled too much against Washington to look ready to play Cal. California wins.

I Know College Football Upset Roll Call

Ohio State at Penn State

Penn State wins. See Marquis Matchups.

Minnesota at Michigan

This game is going to be close but I don't have any faith in Michigan's offense. They are hit and miss depending on Hart being there and Henne throwing accurately neither of which are certain (well okay, Hart is playing). I also think that Minnesota had an eye opener and is going to be ready for what Michigan has. Michigan's rushing defense is 52 in the nation and I don't think they'll be able to stop Maroney. Michigan picks up its third loss after Maroney picks up 150 yards.

Virginia at Boston College

Virginia is coming off a an upset loss to Maryland and Boston College is coming off a blowout of a 2nd string team. I really don't think that Virginia is going to play well. They never have. They haven't been able to look good when they win. So while this is more likely than most other games Saturday, BC wins.

I Know College Football Done Deals

Wisconsin at Northwestern

This game is going to be high scoring early but the Badgers will pull away in the second half when their defense wears out Northwestern

Florida State at Wake Forest

Wake Forest may be the Vandy of the ACC...wait they got beat by Vandy. Florida State Wins.

Miami at Duke

Duke actually knows how to cover the open field at 16th in pass defense, but don't expect them to win this one.